Food for Thought

Food for Thought is a weekly newsletter to help investors understand market movements and bring to light the retail investor, offering high-quality information.

Posted every Sunday, 'Food for 'Thought' is your splash of insight into what's going on in markets over the past week.

Food for Thought discussions are big-picture and almost academic, but it seems more likely than most to cover the big market-movers of tomorrow.

Latest Issues

Food for Thought #14
Hi. This month, China has been adopting new policies that we believe will materially affect the landscape in the 2H22, especially after years of facing regulatory constraints. A few events might affect asset pricing and the economy more than most people realize, even though the media has been ignori…
Food for Thought #13
Today’s outlineLT Fundamental HoldsFinancial and Physical RisksIndustry Capital DeficitVolatility TrapWrong RiskClosed IdeasThis week PostsNew Entries - Trading Diary🇧🇷 Fading Momentum🔻, Yellow flag for neobanksModel Update - Stone, SinqiaPix Handbook - Part IIFeedbackGiro’s Newsletter takes feed…
Food for Thought #12
Today’s outlineTale of Two RealitiesLost DecadeSecret Sauce RecipeReality CheckIn case you missed it (Pix, Rates, Google)Closed IdeasThis week PostsTrade Book ChangesMastercard faces complaintsWhy Value Investing?PIX vs. Debit CardBrazil March Wrap-upPix Handbook - Part I ⭐ShareTale of Two Realities…
Food for Thought #11
Today’s outlineNot CoolThe Empty BreadbasketAdd Fuel to the FireA Fart in the BreezeNot Buying itIn case you missed it (Sea Limited, Stone, Meli)Closed IdeasThis week PostsFriendly Fire in LatAmSchedule for April / Q&APIX Surpasses CardChairman Meeting FeedbackNubank - Part IINot coolSince Augus…
Food for Thought #10
Hi. Folks, I couldn’t thank you enough for subscribing to my Substack. When I was planning the content, many friends argued that launching a Substack charging since day one was suicide, though we’re proving they’re wrong. What most people don’t get this is a life’s
Food for Thought #9
Today’s outlineLatest PostsDon’t hesitatePill hard to swallowOil tumblesWhat charts are telling us?In case you missed it (Rates in Brazil, Oil)Closed Ideas Latest PostsDelisting RiskWatch Over #1 - Updating the shopping listNew guideline for Fintechs in BrazilPBR - Change in management (again)?Stone…
Food for Thought #8
Disclosure: All posts on Giro’s Newsletter are for informational purposes only. This post is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities discussed. So please, do your work before investing/gambling your money. Today’s outlineLatest Posts ($NU, PIX)Tightening ConditionCalibrating estimatesWhat ch…
Food for Thought #7
Disclosure: All posts on Giro’s Newsletter are for informational purposes only. This post is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities discussed. So please, do your work before investing/gambling your money. (17 minutes read) Today’s outlineLatest PostsDystopiaDoing fine, thanksWhat charts are…
Food for Thought #6
Disclosure: All posts on Giro’s Newsletter are for informational purposes only. This post is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities discussed. So please, do your work before investing/gambling your money. Today’s outlinePeaceTemporary ShockImplication for MetalsKeep an eye on itIn case you m…
Food for Thought #5
Today’s outlineEdge of the chasmTwo sides of the same coinBreakout weekIn case you missed it ($MELI, $STNE, $NU)Portfolio (PRO)Watchlist (PRO)Brazilian Banks ($BBD, $BDORY, $ITUB) (PRO)Making money with elections in Brazil (PRO)Short Populism (PRO)Links to Interactive Models (PRO) Stone ($STNE), Pe…
Food for Thought #4
Today’s outlineLong-Term vs. Short-TermReview EstimatesRaising Funding Cost ($STNE)Change in Regulation ($XP)The bumpy road aheadPortfolio (PRO)Watchlist (PRO)Notes from meetings ($Vale) (PRO)Long-Term vs. Short-TermEM equities have outperformed the S&P 500 since January (~+10%) primarily becaus…
Food for Thought #3
Today’s outlineThe best leastHandle the chipsThe next FED putValue in Relative ValueRotate to lending in ChinaWhat am I doing with my $FB position? (PRO Content)Betting in a turning point for economic growth (PRO Content)Clash of titans: $VALE vs. $PBR (PRO Content)A bear scenario for oil has
Food for Thought #2
On today’s post: Weird weekFED put is still thereDon’t be a heroBetter Buy OilPlace your betsPortfolio (PRO Content)What Am I Doing? (PRO Content)Rates in Brazil and the $BRL (PRO Content)Stone ($STNE) (PRO Content)Weird WeekMonday wasn’t a typical day. Write this down. It was
Food for Thought #1
Hi. Since September of 2021, everyone has been talking about inflation after Chair Powell opened the window for multiple rate hikes in 2022 at the FOMC meeting, leading the market to increase FFR (Fed Fund Rates) expectations end-2022. Recent data doesn’t help at all. December CPI inflation reading…
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